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Fed Watch
S&P 500 PE Ratio
Fear & Greed Index
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| Upcoming Economic Events | ||
|---|---|---|
| FOMC Rate Decision | Fed Watch | |
| 10-Year/3-Month Treasury Yield Inversion | Treasury Rates | |
| US Bond Information (FRED Official) | ||
|---|---|---|
| 10-Year Treasury | Loading data… | FRED |
| 2-Year Treasury | Loading data… | FRED |
| 3-Month Treasury | Loading data… | FRED |
| Market Valuation Information | ||
|---|---|---|
| Warren Buffet Indicator (GDP / Market Cap) | [S&P500] Significantly Overvalued | Link |
| S&P500 PER | 27.8 | Link |
| Market Sentiment | ||
|---|---|---|
| Fear and Greed Index | Extreme Fear | Link |
| US Yield Curve Inversion | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Status | Indicator 1 | Indicator 2 | Inversion Start | Inversion End | Duration | Recession Prediction |
| Recession Risk | 10-Year Treasury | 2-Year Treasury | 07/05/2022 | 09/06/2024 | 26 months | Jul 2022 – Sep 2024 |
| Recession Risk | 10-Year Treasury | 3-Month Treasury | 10/24/2022 | 12/13/2024 | 26 months | Oct 2022 – Dec 2024 |
| Timer After Economic Events | ||
|---|---|---|
| QT(Quantitative Tightening) | FED Asset | |
| Additional Recession Indicator | ||
|---|---|---|
| Sahm Rule | 0.27 < 0.5 | FRED |
| High Yield Spread | 3.16 %p (On the rise recently) | FRED |
| Wall Street Forecasts of 2025 S&P 500 Index (Started at 5,568) | |
|---|---|
| Oppenheimer | 7,100 |
| Wells Fargo Investments | 7,007 |
| Deutsche Bank | 7,000 |
| BMO | 6,700 |
| Bank of America | 6,666 |
| Fundstrat, RBC, Barclays, Evercore ISI | 6,600 |
| CFRA | 6,585 |
| Citi, JPMorgan Chase & Co. | 6,500 |
| Morgan Stanley | 6,400 |
– On Market Speculation:
A discussion on whether current market conditions resemble a bubble.
– Key Lessons:
Howard Marks shares insights on long-term investing in volatile markets.
– Economic Risks:
An overview of macroeconomic risks and their potential impact on market stability.
– Investment Strategy:
Advice on cautious portfolio positioning during uncertain times.
– Contrarian Viewpoints:
Why some market participants may underestimate the risks of speculation.
– Final Thoughts:
Marks’s conclusion on current market valuations and investor sentiment.
– Source:
Oaktree Capital: On Bubble Watch